Analysis of the FPNCC/Northern Alliance and Myanmar Conflict Dynamics

With the Myanmar military pressuring all ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), non-signatory EAOs have responded by forming a loose military alliance, called the Northern Alliance, to strengthen their position against the military. As with many alliances in Myanmar’s history, the cohesiveness and long-term viability of the alliance is uncertain.…

Mozambique Update

On 5 and 6 October 2017, a group of 30 armed men attacked three police stations in Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province. Two police officers and 14 militants were killed. A week later, a police unit was again targeted, this time along the Mocimboa da Praia-Palma route. Over the following months,…

Assassinations in North West Syria

Syria’s North West[1] rebel stronghold has recently witnessed a wave of targeted assassinations against rebel factions and, specifically, against Hayat Tahrir al Sham[2] (HTS) members and leadership. While ACLED data show that assassinations in this area took place at lower levels across 2017, the recent wave of assassinations shows higher frequency and lethality[3] than earlier…