Analysis Search

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Endgames & Affiliations: Explaining Differing Patterns of Behavior Between Islamist Groups

19 April 2019

Islamist groups have been deemed one of the most significant threats to international security in the 21st century, and current conflicts include peak levels of political violence involving Islamist actors (New York Times, 6 July 2018). Islamism can imply a variety of qualities – most commonly, the term implies that the group in question aims…

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Beyond the Caliphate: The Islamic State’s Global Future

27 February 2019

ACLED Research Analyst Melissa Pavlik tracks Islamic State activity outside of its former “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria, evaluating the militant group’s continued potential for global disruption.* ________ *Correction: This infographic previously included activity where the specific faction of Boko Haram involved in the event (Barnawi or Shekau faction) was unknown based on reporting. As…

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Taking Stock: Disorder ahead of Nigeria’s General Election

14 February 2019

With Nigeria’s next General Election set for 16 February 2019 (later delayed to 23 February), Research Analyst Melissa Pavlik surveys the changing political violence landscape in the years since the last vote. © 2019 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.

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The New Normal: Continuity and Boko Haram’s Violence in North East Nigeria

11 February 2019

Boko Haram’s attack on Rann, a town in North East Nigeria on January 28th resulted in 60 reported fatalities and more than 30,000 people fleeing (Al Jazeera, 29 January 2019). The attack on Rann came just after the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) – a coalition of forces from Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Benin…

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10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2019

1 February 2019

Disorder spread across ACLED’s areas of coverage last year, with political violence and protest surging in more countries than they declined. These trends show few signs of stopping in 2019, as conflict and unrest threaten to expand in scope and scale. In this special report on 10 conflicts to worry about in 2019, ACLED analyzes…

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Africa’s Giants Go to the Polls: Upcoming Elections in DRC and Nigeria

21 December 2018

In this infographic, ACLED Research Analyst Hilary Matfess unpacks political violence trends in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria ahead of the their upcoming elections.

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Concurrent Crises in Nigeria

15 October 2018

This infographic, by ACLED Research Analyst Melissa Pavlik, examines the three primary crises posing a threat to Nigeria’s stability.

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Fulani Militias in Nigeria: Declining Violence Not a Sign of Lasting Peace

5 October 2018

Violence associated with Fulani militias is on the decline since reaching a peak in January 2018. However, this decline is likely driven by the seasonality of violence. Shifts in the type of violence associated with Fulani militias in 2018 thus far suggest that there will be increased targeting of civilians and clashes with the government…

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Boko Haram’s Deadly Persistence (1 January 2011 – 31 August 2018)

13 September 2018

This infographic, by ACLED Research Analyst Hilary Matfess, features Boko Haram’s deadly persistence from January 1st, 2011 to August 31st, 2018.

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Can Boko Haram Effectively Function Despite Current Limitations?

31 August 2018

The military’s systematic hallowing of Boko Haram has caused a diminished foothold within Nigeria and may have accelerated lingering internal disputes. From 2016-Present, the Nigeria-Cameroon joint operations of Lafiya Dole and Last Hold have placed Boko Haram into a defensive posture, losing almost all Nigerian-controlled territory and limiting activities to remaining camps surrounding Lake Chad…

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