South Sudan — June 2016 Update

In May 2016, the number of battles and conflict events in South Sudan fell to the lowest level in the past 12 months (see Figure 1). The decrease in total events and battles is due, in part, to the formation of a transitional government and the reinstatement of opposition leader Riek Machar as First Vice…

South Sudan — January 2015 Update

On 26 August 2015, South Sudan President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar signed a peace deal in an attempt to end a 20-month civil war (Reuters, 26 August 2015). The agreement has already proven fragile with an escalation in the number of conflict events and reported fatalities involving Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement-In Opposition…

South Sudan and Sudan — 2015 Update

In 2015, both Sudan and South Sudan experimented with peace talks and peace agreements with their respective opposition groups, with varying effects on conflict events in each country. Despite stalled talks and ceasefires in Sudan, the number of conflict events in the country decreased in the second half of 2015 (see Figure 1). In late…

Uganda — November 2015 Update

Uganda has seen a steady increase in violence and protest throughout 2015, peaking in October with 46 events reported. October also saw nearly twice the number of conflict events as the second-most active month in 2015 (24 total events were reported in July) (see Figure 1), and each month had six conflict-related fatalities (see Figure…

Zambia — October 2015 Update

Zambia recently experienced a record number of riots, suggesting that the political instability that occurred in January has not been resolved, and the politics of succession are not entirely peaceful (see Figure 1). Recent riots were sparked by parliamentary by-elections in Solwezi and Lubansenshi (Lusaka Times, 25 September 2015), revealing a continued rivalry between the…

Sudan — July 2015 Update

A campaign of violence has been escalating in Sudanese universities in recent weeks, and over 200 students from Darfur have been assaulted, beaten, or detained over the last six months. On April 29th, 150 student members of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) attacked members of the Darfur Students Association (DSA) at Sharq El Nil…

Al Shabaab in Tanzania: Current Status and Potential Future Patterns

Although Tanzania holds a reputation for peace and stability, the country has experienced an increase in violent Islamist-related activity in 2015. The most recent attack occurred on the 14th of April in the eastern Morogoro Region (see Figure 1), when a suspected Al Shabaab militant attacked a police officer with a machete. The policeman survived,…