Radar-Zimbabwe Pre-Election Report 2018

Zimbabweans go to the polls on 30 July to select the president, members of parliament, and local government representatives. This election season is shaped by several marked differences from previous contests. Many of the parliamentary and council candidates are not party incumbents, and there are many independent candidates. Both of the main parties competing are…

Regional Overview – Asia 23 June 2018

Overall levels of political violence and protest events in South and southeast Asia dropped last week compared to the previous week. Key events in Asia last week included intense fighting between the Taliban and Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan, ongoing election violence in Pakistan, a sharp spike in drug-related killings in the Philippines, and continuing…

Regional Overview – Middle East 23 June 2018

Last week, the escalating conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas finally ended with a seemingly stable ceasefire on July 21, though not before several people were reportedly killed along the Gazan border. In Iraq, anti-regime demonstrations escalated further, leading security forces to crack down harder on the increasingly violent and widespread agitation (for more on…

Regional Overview – Africa 23 June 2018

Key developments in Africa in the week of July 15th include increased attacks by Boko Haram in several states surrounding Nigeria, and targeted political violence in Zimbabwe and Burundi. Regular fighting also occurred in Somalia, Mali, CAR and DRC, while riots and protests dominated the political landscapes in Ghana, Kenya and North Africa. In Chad,…

Analysis of the FPNCC/Northern Alliance and Myanmar Conflict Dynamics

With the Myanmar military pressuring all ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), non-signatory EAOs have responded by forming a loose military alliance, called the Northern Alliance, to strengthen their position against the military. As with many alliances in Myanmar’s history, the cohesiveness and long-term viability of the alliance is uncertain.…

Mozambique Update

On 5 and 6 October 2017, a group of 30 armed men attacked three police stations in Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province. Two police officers and 14 militants were killed. A week later, a police unit was again targeted, this time along the Mocimboa da Praia-Palma route. Over the following months,…

Assassinations in North West Syria

Syria’s North West[1] rebel stronghold has recently witnessed a wave of targeted assassinations against rebel factions and, specifically, against Hayat Tahrir al Sham[2] (HTS) members and leadership. While ACLED data show that assassinations in this area took place at lower levels across 2017, the recent wave of assassinations shows higher frequency and lethality[3] than earlier…

Unrest in Basra Signals Growing Crisis

A new wave of violent demonstrations occurred last week in the oil-rich province of Basra in southern Iraq as the mounting pressure of economic and social grievances reached a boiling point. At the heart of the crisis is a set of complex issues revolving around the various political crises which have plagued the Iraqi government…