South Sudan — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Peacekeeping, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Levels of political conflict in South Sudan decreased in June 2015. Though the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which has overseen multiple peace negotiations aimed at ending the 18-month conflict, may be tempted to refer to this drop in conflict as a sign of progress, the decrease is more likely due to the onset of the rainy season in South Sudan (Africa Confidential, 15 May 2015).…

Burundi — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Pro-Government Militias, Rioting And Protests, Unidentified Armed Groups, Violence Against Civilians
The political crisis in Burundi is entering its 14th week and though aggregate levels of political violence have decreased since May when mass rioting and protests took hold of the capital, the forms of political violence employed by the varying sides of the political divide have become more lethal (see Figure 1).…

Tunisia — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
While a new series of violent events targeted civilians and security forces in June, Tunisia witnessed a sustained increase in political violence (see Figure 1). Not only is the number of conflict events rising, reported fatalities were also at their highest since January 2011.…

Mali — July 2015 Update

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Violence Against Civilians
Mali’s current outlook can be termed as cautiously optimistic, although significant challenges remain following the signing of a peace treaty between the Government of Mali and representatives of the Tuareg-led rebels from the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) on June 20 (Al Jazeera, June 21, 2015).…

Changing Patterns of Violence in Burundi’s Political Crisis: A comparison to Burkina Faso and Democratic Republic of Congo

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Government Repression, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
The decision by Burundian president Pierre Nkurunziza to push for a third term in government has pulled the country into its most intractable political crisis since the end of the 2005 civil war.…

Apathy, Intimidation and Non-Violence in Zimbabwe’s Contentious By-Elections

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Elections, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
By the end of the 10th of June by-elections, the ruling Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) had won all 16 contested constituencies. In the run up to the contest, the by-elections had pitted current ZANU-PF insiders against party exiles who had been purged for their alleged connections to ex-Vice President Joice Mjuru.…