Tunisia Presidential Elections: a fresh start or “in with the old”?

On Sunday, Tunisia observed the first round of presidential elections since the 2011 revolution, with a 62.9% turnout. Despite the Tunisian authorities deploying 80,000 security forces across the country to face anticipated unrest (Al Jazeera, 24 November 2014) the elections were not marred by violence, reflecting their open and inclusive nature. Conflict levels have remained…

Factionalism and Violence within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front

Tensions within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) have increased ahead of the party Congress in December. There is an expectation that the Congress will address the question of succession, an issue that has divided the party into two camps: one backing the ascension of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the other backing the President’s…

Algeria – Political Competition and Stability

The Arab Democracy Index IV, published in November 2014, documented that “there has been a positive but slow progress towards democratic change” in the region since the Arab Spring. The results identify that Algeria progressed by 105 ADI (Arab Democracy Index) points since 2011 and ranks third behind Morocco and Jordan. This score is measured…

The Rainy Season and Conflict in South Sudan

The climate did its part to worsen the crisis in South Sudan during the rainy season, which began around May and is only just now letting up (Sudan Tribune, November 10, 2014).  The rain’s effects on food insecurity and malnourishment (BBC, September 9, 2014), health issues (The Guardian, July 1, 2014), and increased displacement (Al…

Boko Haram Activity Since the Nigerian Government’s Announcement of the Ceasefire

On the 17th of October, Hassan Tukur, a senior aide to President Goodluck Jonathan, announced that the Nigerian government had agreed a ceasefire with Boko Haram and secured the release of the 219 girls kidnapped from Chibok earlier this year (Al Jazeera, 18 October). Doubts were immediately cast on the validity of the government’s claim.…

Intra-Tuareg Militant Violence and Islamist Insurgency – The Overlapping Crises of the Conflict in Mali

Following the short but deadly burst of fighting in May, Mali has generally seen a decreasing trend in overall events over the past few months (which follows a broader trend in decreasing violence since this time last year), with a spike in fatalities during July (see Figure 1). However, although the number of violent events…

The Escalation of Political Violence in Libya

Since June 2014, Libya has been the fourth most volatile country in the ACLED African dataset with 534 reported conflict events. Political violence continued to escalate throughout the month of October (see Figure 1)with September recording the highest fatalities – and over double those reported since the beginning of the renewed post-civil war violence. Compared…

Election-Related Conflict in Mozambique

Mozambique continues to see riots and protests surrounding its elections on October 15 last month. In November 2013, Mozambique saw a marked increase in election-related riots and protests in association with its local elections involving the ruling Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (FRELIMO) party (who have held a monopoly on ruling power since independence from…

Rebel Groups of the DRC and Attacks on Civilians

When looking at violence against civilians in DR-Congo from 2009-2014, rebel groups have been responsible for the majority of fatalities in these violent events (Figure 1). ACLED regards ‘rebels’ as armed agents in opposition to the established government with aims to overthrow the regime, or establish a separate state; in short, these groups have national…

Continued Conflict and Violence in South Sudan

With peace talks between president Salva Kiir and SPLA/M-In Opposition leader and former vice-president Riek Machar on hiatus, conflict in South Sudan continues.  Since the ceasefire agreement between the two in May, the number of conflict events involving the government and the SPLA/M-IO has not significantly decreased.  Though in recent months, the frequency of conflict…