Zimbabwe — September 2015 Update

In August, conflict activity in Zimbabwe reached the lowest levels since December 2014, with 12 recorded conflict events and no reported fatalities. Conflict levels have been decreasing since April, when competition for the June by-elections contributed to escalating violence (ACLED Trends Report, June 2015).…

Violence in Zimbabwe

  Zimbabwe’s political violence is characterized by several distinct features. An extremely high proportion of all conflict is directed against civilians: while across Africa, violence against civilians’ averages at 30% of total political violence, in Zimbabwe, it accounts for 75% as an average from 1997-2015.Most…

Apathy, Intimidation and Non-Violence in Zimbabwe’s Contentious By-Elections

By the end of the 10th of June by-elections, the ruling Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) had won all 16 contested constituencies. In the run up to the contest, the by-elections had pitted current ZANU-PF insiders against party exiles who had been purged for their alleged connections to ex-Vice President Joice Mjuru.…

Political Factionalism and Electoral Competition in Zimbabwe

Conflict levels decreased to below average levels in May. This decline follows a spike in violence in April which saw levels of political violence not witnessed since the expulsion of Joice Mujuru and her supporters from the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in December and January.…

Tunisia Presidential Elections: a fresh start or “in with the old”?

On Sunday, Tunisia observed the first round of presidential elections since the 2011 revolution, with a 62.9% turnout. Despite the Tunisian authorities deploying 80,000 security forces across the country to face anticipated unrest (Al Jazeera, 24 November 2014) the elections were not marred by violence, reflecting their open and inclusive nature.…

Urban Bias in Media Reporting

ACLED is part of a general trend in social science to use the current benefits of global online media and information to disaggregate and track social phenomena. Through monitoring reports from multiple sources in multiple countries, datasets such as ACLED can move beyond the highly aggregated binary approach of classifying political violence seen in earlier studies and breakdown conflicts into a series of spatially and temporally discrete events (Gleditsch et al.,…

Factionalism and Violence within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front

Tensions within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) have increased ahead of the party Congress in December. There is an expectation that the Congress will address the question of succession, an issue that has divided the party into two camps: one backing the ascension of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the other backing the President’s wife, Grace Mugabe (Africa Confidential, 13 November 2014).…

Algeria – Political Competition and Stability

The Arab Democracy Index IV, published in November 2014, documented that “there has been a positive but slow progress towards democratic change” in the region since the Arab Spring. The results identify that Algeria progressed by 105 ADI (Arab Democracy Index) points since 2011 and ranks third behind Morocco and Jordan.…