Political Bipartisanism and Violence in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has been in political turmoil since early January, leaving more than 150 people dead and thousands injured. Confrontational politics are not new in Bangladesh, but they have intensified in the recent months, reaching its highest level in late January and the beginning of February.…

Political Factionalism and Electoral Competition in Zimbabwe

Conflict levels decreased to below average levels in May. This decline follows a spike in violence in April which saw levels of political violence not witnessed since the expulsion of Joice Mujuru and her supporters from the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in December and January.…

Al Shabaab in Tanzania: Current Status and Potential Future Patterns

Although Tanzania holds a reputation for peace and stability, the country has experienced an increase in violent Islamist-related activity in 2015. The most recent attack occurred on the 14th of April in the eastern Morogoro Region (see Figure 1), when a suspected Al Shabaab militant attacked a police officer with a machete.…

The Exportation of Ugandan Rebel Violence: A Comparison of the Allied Democratic Forces and Lord’s Resistance Army

In the past few weeks, the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF, formerly the Alliance of Democratic Forces – National Army for the Liberation of Uganda, ADF-NALU) has experienced several setbacks. Dozens of its soldiers have been killed or captured, including senior personnel, while its leader, Jamil Mukulu, was arrested in Tanzania at the end of April (Wall Street Journal, 2015).…

Counter-Insurgency and Violence Against Civilians in Eastern Congo

Since the beginning of 2015, numerous offensives have been launched by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC). These include operations against Rwandan FDLR rebels in North and South Kivu and Katanga, Ugandan ADF rebels in the areas north of the town of Beni (which has been the site of frequent attacks on civilians), the FNL around the Uvira plateaus, FRPI militiamen in the territory of Walendu Bindi, and the APCLS in the Lukweti area.…

Protest, Service Delivery and Xenophobic Violence in South Africa

Conflict levels fell dramatically in May 2015 after South Africa suffered a wave of xenophobic and anti-foreigner violence in April. The scale of the violence surpassed the anti-foreigner riots that hit Soweto in January 2015 after an alleged robber was shot by a Somali shopkeeper, prompting South African residents to loot foreign-owned shops.…

The Risk of Conflict-Related Mortality: How to Calculate Risk and Understanding Relative Risk Across Countries  

A unit of relative risk is necessary in order to be able to draw comparisons on the risk of violence or death against civilians from political conflict. A micromort is such a measure, and is often used to determine the ‘riskiness’ of various activities within decision analysis (Howard, 1980).…