Regional Overview – Middle East 14 May 2018

Both Lebanon and Iraq held elections last week, with the number of riots and protests as well as election-related violence rising, respectively, in each case. Demonstrations in Iran were focused on “Teacher’s Week” while a smaller subset of demonstrations were focused on the United States’ pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.…

Operation Olive Branch: Patterns of Violence and Future Turkish Offensives

As Turkish and allied Syrian faction violence has decreased after their March 2018 capture of Syria’s Afrin border region from Kurdish forces, questions remain about Turkey’s plans for further operations in Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Syria.…

Naxalite-Maoist Conflict in India 1 January 2016 to Present

Violent conflict involving Naxalite-Maoist rebels in India’s Red Corridor has contributed to a recent increase in political violence in India. Maoist rebels have been engaged in a war against the Government of India since 2004.…

Recent Trends in Jordanian Demonstrations

On 27 January 2018, the Jordanian government approved a new budget which removed subsidies on wheat and imposed a tax hike on over 100 common items. However, protests in the kingdom were less attended and less widespread than anticipated due to the same factors that limited protests during the Arab Spring.…

Regional Overview – Africa 7 May 2018

Important developments in Africa on the week of April 29th include the major attacks on civilians in central towns in the Central African Republic (CAR) and in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); the alarming tensions along the Mali-Niger border; the first use of weaponised drones in Libya; and the riots in South Africa and Zimbabwe.…

Ethiopia: Protests Shift from Oromia to Somali Province

The week beginning 22 April saw a significant increase in riots and protests in Ethiopia (see Figure 1). Unlike riots and protests in recent months, which have mostly been centred in the Oromia region and Oromo demands for self-determination, this spike in protest activity was focused in the Somali region (see Figure 2), where regional president, Abdi Illey, is battling to retain both control of the region and control of his party, the Ethiopian Somali People’s Democratic Party (ESPDP).  …