As the SAF and RSF build parallel governments and upgrade their arsenals, the world’s deadliest conflict for civilians is unlikely to end soon.
As the SAF and RSF build parallel governments and upgrade their arsenals, the world’s deadliest conflict for civilians is unlikely to end soon.
The Houthis have drawn down their attacks on commercial shipping, but dynamics in the Horn of Africa and Yemen bring the Red Sea to a crossroads between de-escalation and spiraling violence.
ISCAP’s collaboration with allies deepened in the DRC, Ethiopia launched its first airstrike against the Tigray Defence Forces since the Pretoria agreement, and violence surged in the Tombouctou region of Mali.
The RSF attacked civilians in Sudan after taking over El Fasher and Bara, unrest erupted in Cameroon over President Biya’s re-election, and al-Shabaab struck a prison in the Somali capital.
As the SAF and RSF build parallel governments and upgrade their arsenals, the world’s deadliest conflict for civilians is unlikely to end soon.
The Houthis have drawn down their attacks on commercial shipping, but dynamics in the Horn of Africa and Yemen bring the Red Sea to a crossroads between de-escalation and spiraling violence.
ISCAP’s collaboration with allies deepened in the DRC, Ethiopia launched its first airstrike against the Tigray Defence Forces since the Pretoria agreement, and violence surged in the Tombouctou region of Mali.
The RSF attacked civilians in Sudan after taking over El Fasher and Bara, unrest erupted in Cameroon over President Biya’s re-election, and al-Shabaab struck a prison in the Somali capital.
The Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) capture of El Fasher — following 18 months of siege — marks a significant turning point in Sudan’s civil war. El Fasher was the last stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its ally in the Darfur region, the Darfur Joint Forces.
Insurgent violence rose in Nigeria’s Borno state, the US’ first recorded drone strike in the Sanaag region of Somalia killed an elder, and in Sudan the RSF made gains in El Fasher.
JNIM overran the Farabougou army base in Mali after a five-year siege, Boko Haram escalated attacks on the Cameroon-Nigeria border, and targeted violence in Darfur drove an increase in civilian deaths in August.
This report examines the important shifts leading to SAF’s advances, and the impact this new phase of war will have on the dynamic of the conflict.
The war in Sudan is at a crossroads. Although the SAF has arguably gained momentum in Khartoum, Sennar, and al-Jazirah states, prospects for peace are slim.
An infographic of the violence in Sudan in 2024 by ACLED.