ACLED data show at least 50 instances of airspace violations of countries on Ukraine’s western borders since 2022 — Expert comment

Since the start of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, ACLED records at least 50 instances of airspace violations of countries on Ukraine’s western borders, mostly crashes of Russian and Ukrainian stray drones and missiles. Prior to 10 September 2025, only four incidents had previously occurred in Poland during the war. The most affected countries throughout the invasion have been Moldova and Romania, which together account for over 85% of the recorded events. Stray drones were also detected in Latvia in September 2024 and in Lithuania and Estonia in July and August 2025, respectively. ACLED also records unauthorized drone surveillance in European countries around the Black, Baltic, and North seas.

ACLED Europe and Central Asia Senior Analyst Nichita Gurcov commented: 

“Russia has stepped up its aerial campaign against Ukraine both in terms of the number of long-range attacks, the number of missiles, and especially the number of drones involved. Coupled with electronic warfare systems used by both sides to take drones off course, the escalating air war may heighten the risk of direct military engagement between Russia and NATO, which both appear to have painstakingly avoided so far. Regardless of whether this was indeed intentional, the downing of a Russian attack and/or decoy drones over NATO territory is bringing everyone involved into uncharted territory.”

Background information:
On 10 September, multiple suspected Russian drones violated Polish airspace at the junction of the country’s borders with Ukraine and Belarus. Polish and allied forces intercepted some of the drones. There were no casualties, but minor damage to a house in a Polish border area occurred, and several Polish airports were locked down. The incident triggered consultations within NATO and allegations by European officials that the airspace violation was deliberate.¹ Previously, similar consultations took place in the wake of an incident in mid-November 2022 when two missiles crossed into Poland from Ukraine, killing two Polish civilians. The missiles turned out to be Ukrainian air defense interceptors fending off a Russian aerial attack.

Note for editors: For more information or to interview Nichita Gurcov,  please contact Gina Dorso at [email protected]. 

For further information, please see Ukraine Conflict Monitor. ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data)  is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.