ACLED spokesperson on Kurdish dynamics in Iran’s western war zone

A Middle East specialist from ACLED said: 

"One week into the war, Israel and the United States can point to significant operational successes across Iran. Yet these gains have not translated into a clear strategic outcome: the collapse or transformation of the Iranian regime remains uncertain. Against this backdrop, Iran’s western border region is becoming increasingly important. Kurdish armed groups may soon launch operations from the Iran–Iraq border, amid reports that Israeli and US officials have been in contact with Iranian Kurdish factions based in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. 

"The geographic distribution of the current joint US-Israeli air campaign is notable in this context. ACLED data indicates that about one-fifth of all strikes have occurred  in Kurdish-majority provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan, and Ilam, most of them by Israel. After Tehran, Kermanshah has experienced the highest number of strikes since the start of the war.

"These areas host missile infrastructure that forms part of Iran’s western defensive belt and have been targeted to disrupt missile attacks against Israel. However, internal security installations — including police, local IRGC and neighbourhood Basij bases, as well as border bases and checkpoints — have also been heavily struck. This pattern suggests an effort not only to degrade Iran’s military capabilities but also to weaken the security structures thereby facilitating potential insurgent activity against the regime. For Washington and Tel Aviv, pressure from Kurdish armed groups could open an additional front along Iran’s western periphery, stretching Iranian security forces and deepening internal instability. Even if this does not produce regime collapse, sustained insurgent pressure could keep the state preoccupied and weakened, reducing its ability to recover and project power abroad.

"Longstanding political marginalization, economic neglect, and restrictions on Kurdish cultural rights have driven insurgent movements among Iranian Kurds, many of whom advocate regional autonomy within a federal Iranian state. Their armed activity, however, has fluctuated over time. Since 2016, when ACLED began its coverage of Iran, more than 200 armed engagements have been recorded between Iranian security forces and Kurdish armed groups in western border areas.

"Even with Israeli or US support, however, the mobilization of these groups may fall short of posing a decisive threat to the regime’s survival. More likely, such activity would destabilize border areas or lead to the seizure of towns in Kurdish-majority regions in the west, rather than expanding into Iran’s central regions.

"At the same time, the risks are considerable. Armed ethnic insurgencies could provoke a nationalist backlash inside Iran and unify some political factions behind the regime. In some mixed-ethnicity towns in western provinces, reports indicate that the IRGC has begun calling on local residents to take up arms against Kurdish militants, a step that could lead to civil strife. Regional escalation is also possible: Iran has already struck Kurdish militant bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and warned that cross-border operations could trigger retaliation against infrastructure in the Kurdistan Region. Turkey is also likely to oppose any development that strengthens armed Kurdish movements along their borders. For Kurdish groups themselves, the risks are equally significant. Without sustained external backing, especially air cover, any large-scale operation could expose them to severe retaliation from Iranian security forces. This scenario therefore carries significant risks both for Iran’s internal stability and for the wider region."

For an interview with an ACLED expert, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected]. 

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.