Are Iran-backed Iraqi militias escalating attacks against the Gulf?

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East Research Manager at ACLED, said: 

“The conflict in the Gulf is entering a new phase as Iran-backed Iraqi militias emerge as a major, escalating actor in the region. Emerging amid stalled negotiations between the US and Iran, this resumption signals a calibrated escalation by Tehran, threatening renewed attacks while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability. 

“On 17 May, three drones targeted the United Arab Emirates, with one successfully striking an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant. Although attribution initially remained unclear, the UAE defense ministry later confirmed the attack was carried out by Iraqi militias;¹ and it was the first attack targeting nuclear infrastructure in the Gulf recorded by ACLED since the beginning of the conflict.

“The same day, another attack, likely carried out by Iraqi militias, targeted Saudi Arabia, and on 19 May with an additional attack targeting the UAE with six drones. The incident marks a resumption of attacks by Iraqi militias against Gulf countries, following a relative lull since the last recorded attack on 24 April in Kuwait and a broader decline in such attacks after the 8 April ceasefire. 

“So far, ACLED has recorded more than 65 attacks or conflict events involving Iraqi militias targeting Gulf countries, representing a modest 8% of the nearly 800 attacks recorded against Gulf countries throughout the conflict, concentrated in Kuwait and Bahrain. However, this figure is almost certainly an underestimate – Saudi assessments reportedly indicate that roughly half of the drone attacks targeting the Kingdom originated from Iraq and were carried out by Iran-backed Iraqi militias. 

“Many attacks originating from Iraq are never publicly claimed, and distinguishing between attacks directly conducted by Iran and those carried out by Iraqi militias remains extremely difficult based on open sources alone. As a result, ACLED’s figures rely primarily on publicly available claims and verifiable reporting.”