Expert Comment
Are tensions in the South China Sea rising?
ACLED's Asia-Pacific Senior Research Assistant, Tomas Buenaventura, explains how the recent confrontation between Philippine and Chinese actors in the South China Sea fits within broader tensions.
A video released by the Philippine military appears to show a member of the Chinese Coast Guard striking a Filipino sailor on the head with a wooden baton in the open waters of the South China Sea. According to the Philippine military, the Chinese Coast Guard is acting aggressively without provocation. But China rejects that account, saying the sailor’s boat was operating from a Philippine vessel that had been illegally stationed in the area.
Tomas Buenaventura, Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said:
“The incident is the latest in a series of confrontations in the South China Sea, where six governments maintain overlapping territorial claims. Tensions have intensified over the past two years, particularly between China and the Philippines. Collisions between vessels, harassment and confrontations at sea, and military exercises are all associated with so-called ‘grey-zone tactics’: coercive actions that sit just below the threshold of open armed conflict.
“ACLED’s South China Sea Monitor has found that these tactics continue to be employed amid a significant increase in military exercises and movement of forces in the South China Sea in 2026. ACLED records around a 300% increase in these events involving Chinese forces between April and June, compared to the three months prior.
“The location of the confrontation is also significant. It occurred near Second Thomas Shoal, a long-standing flashpoint between China and the Philippines. ACLED data show that the area has seen increased movements of Chinese military and coast guard forces in recent months, signaling a decidedly more assertive posture by Beijing in one of the main Philippine outposts in the disputed waters. It is also the site where Manila intentionally grounded the World War II-era vessel BRP Sierra Madre in 1999 as a station for its soldiers, making this location even more important.
“The incident took place as Southeast Asian governments gather in Manila for an ASEAN conference. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also expected to attend, with tensions in the South China Sea likely to feature prominently on the agenda, especially in the light of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitral tribunal award that invalidated Beijing’s expansive claims over the South China Sea.”
