Bassel Doueik on conflict escalation and fragmentation risks in Lebanon

Bassel Doueik,  Lebanon and Jordan Researcher at ACLED, said: 

“Lebanon is facing a growing risk of long-term destabilization as the scale and intensity of attacks surge. Between 2 and 27 March alone, over 2,000 events of political violence were recorded, largely driven by Israeli military activity.  This includes 1,486 Israeli air and drone strikes, alongside 318 artillery shelling events, some involving white phosphorus. 

“On-ground fighting in southern Lebanon is intensifying and becoming more structured, with clashes concentrated across three main sectors — eastern, middle, and western — where Israeli forces have deployed roughly 50,000 troops. These are supported by key brigades, including the Givati, Paratroopers, and Golani units, the latter redeployed from Gaza;  seeming to be pursuing a strategy aimed at establishing a multi-faced buffer zone and pushing Hezbollah beyond the Litani River —a strategically significant river that effectively separates southern Lebanon from the Bekaa Valley.

“Hezbollah, meanwhile, has quickly reestablished both operational capacity and capability south of the Litani River, but is shifting tactics. Rather than operating as a conventional force, the group is now acting through semi-autonomous small groups to lure in Israeli forces and ambush them —a strategy already proving costly, with Israeli casualties reported.

“Beyond the battlefield, the conflict is exacerbating internal tensions.  The risk of civil unrest in Lebanon is high, with growing hostility toward Hezbollah among other sectarian communities, who increasingly see the group as dragging Lebanon into a conflict between Iran and Israel on Lebanese land. If the conflict persists, Lebanon risks moving from political fragmentation into sustained internal instability.”