Bassel Doueik on escalation of Israeli attacks over Lebanon after “Black Wednesday”

Bassel Doueik, Lebanon and Jordan Researcher at ACLED, said: 

“Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 8, the war between Israel and Hezbollah seems intensifying, particularly as the Israeli military shifts its focus to the Lebanon front.  

“This shift was made starkly clear on April 8 —now labeled in Lebanon as “Black Wednesday” — when the Israeli Air Force carried out an extensive bombardment campaign involving 50 fighter jets, 108 airstrikes across the country in 10 minutes,  and around 160 bombs. While Israel stated it targeted Hezbollah sites, its elite Radwan Force unit and its air unit, the strikes hit numerous civilian areas within Beirut and outside of Hezbollah strongholds. 

“The scale of the impact is significant: several hundreds have been killed¹ and more than 1,000 people have been injured in only 10 minutes of bombardment. Crucially, these strikes occurred a couple of hours after the announcement of the ceasefire between Iran and the US, suggesting there was a strategy to offset the ceasefire. This is why Israel is seen as the wild card, particularly as Iran had insisted that Lebanon be included within the ceasefire — either Lebanon is in or we’re going to ignite the whole conflict all over again.

“This evolving battlefield sits alongside a broader strategic miscalculation. The Israeli government frames Hezbollah as an existential threat, alongside Hamas and Iran, arguing that dismantling the IRGC would trigger a domino effect across the region —however, Hezbollah is not an existential threat to Israel, and, if there is genuine interest in the disarmament of Hezbollah, it should be done diplomatically and politically… through support to the Lebanese army and to the current Lebanese government, rather than through continued military escalation that risks reinforcing the very dynamics it seeks to dismantle.”