Bassel Doueik on Israeli Strikes Along Lebanon’s Litani River

After a 400% increase in violence events in Lebanon since the start of the war, Israeli strikes targeting bridges along the Litani River come with threat of invasion.

Bassel Doueik, Lebanon and Jordan researcher at ACLED, said: 

“A key bridge linking southern Lebanon to the rest of the country was destroyed this weekend as Israeli forces expanded strikes on crossings over the Litani River in an apparent effort to isolate the south and restrict movement across the country. 

“Attacks along the Litani River started on March 18, when the Israeli military started its wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah operatives. 

“Israel is seeking to effectively dissect Lebanon between the south of the Litani River, which it views as a buffer zone to protect northern Israeli communities, and the rest of the country, which it considers the Lebanese state. This comes as many Lebanese flee their homes as a result of clashes and evacuation orders from the IDF, fearing the effective isolation of southern Lebanon and that this could precede a deeper ground incursion similar to 1982.

“Hezbollah has maintained sustained retaliatory attacks, with thousands of projectiles fired since early March and continued cross-border strikes over the weekend, underscoring that Israeli efforts to sever supply routes have not yet neutralised the group’s operational capacity.

“Israel aims to destroy what remains of Iran, however, even with a weakened Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah would still exist, and two years of force against Hezbollah have not worked —only a political settlement would. The same likely applies to Iran: only a political settlement might stop the chaos and stabilise global energy prices. Meanwhile, Gulf states may reassess their position, as rather than being protected by the US, they are increasingly being targeted because of the US, raising fears that this will only further escalate.”