Berlin attack highlights persistent Islamist threat in Europe

On 25 July, a van drove into crowds near Berlin’s Pride celebrations, killing one person and injuring 29. German authorities are treating the attack as Islamist terrorism.

ACLED’s Research Manager for Western Europe, Joel Crisetig, said:

“On 25 July 2026, an individual rammed a van into a crowd of people celebrating the Berlin Pride, killing one and injuring 29. The suspect,  a 21-year-old German citizen of Lebanese descent known by German intelligence for his Islamist ideology, was fatally shot on the next day during a police operation. He had previously been sentenced to prison time for the preparation of an attack but was released from detention after the Public Prosecutor had appealed the verdict. 

“Vehicle rammings and stabbings have become the dominant methods used in Islamist attacks across Europe, reflecting a broader shift towards violence that is less sophisticated and easier to plan and carry out. Compared with the large-scale jihadist coordinated bombings and shootings  Europe experienced a decade ago, perpetrators increasingly rely on readily available methods that require little preparation or specialist capability.

“Yet Islamist extremism has not disappeared. Since 2020, ACLED has recorded 41 jihadist attacks in Europe, 6 of which took place in Germany. These figures may appear low when compared with other types of extremist violence: in the same time period, far-right groups were involved in 262 events targeting civilians in Europe. However, Islamist attacks are much more lethal, accounting for 192 fatalities compared to 24 for the far-right. 

“This is particularly relevant at a time when there is renewed political attention on political violence and debate over which ideologies pose the greatest threat to Europe.

“For intelligence services, one of the biggest challenges is the ‘lone actor’: individuals who radicalize, often through extremist content online, and then carry out attacks independently. The Berlin perpetrator had previously tried to reach Syria to join ISIS but was returned to Germany by Lebanese authorities. Similar patterns are observed in other European countries: in France for example, Islamist attacks perpetrated by youths without any previous affiliation to an Islamist armed group are recorded sporadically.  

“Although far-right terrorism is still described as the main extremist threat by German intelligence, concerns about Islamist attacks have not disappeared: according to Europol,  jihadism remains the most salient security risk to European countries in 2026. The release from prison of hundreds of convicted ISIS and al-Qaeda militants in the coming years could lead to a new increase in Islamist attacks amid questions surrounding the effectiveness of ‘de-radicalization programs’.  In France, 13% of former Islamist terrorism convicts have subsequently been sentenced to further prison terms for terrorism-related offences.

“In  a fragmented European extremist threat landscape, the Berlin attack underlines the complexity of monitoring Islamist activity:  the attacks that are among the simplest to carry out are often the hardest to detect.”