Blasts in Addis Ababa signal dangerous new phase in Ethiopia’s conflict

Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED said:

"On 1 October, blasts were heard around 1 am East Africa Time in Addis Ababa near the headquarters of the Ethiopian military in Torhailoch area and another camp in Meshalokiya area. This occurred a few hours after the Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Services announced a restriction on the use of any type of drone within the capital, Addis Ababa.

"ACLED data shows that during the first round of the northern Ethiopia conflict from November 2020 to November 2022 five explosions occurred in Addis Ababa due to explosives, with the first being recorded on 2 December 2020. However, what makes the recent blast different compared to the previous explosions is the threat of drone strikes. ACLED has confirmed reports of a possible drone-related blast heard at the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) Air Force headquarters in Bishoftu on 26 September. Similarly, suicide drone strikes are believed to have been carried out by the Alliance for Survival, targeting a fuel depot in Kmbolcha Airport on 28 September and the following day, ENDF’s air force base in Mekod area in Bahir Dar city in Amhara region. Should the Alliance for Survival possess drone capabilities, it could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the conflict, refocusing strategic control on aerial dominance.

"Following the reported overnight blast, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia has declared several Eritrean diplomats stationed in Addis Ababa persona non grata, ordering them to depart the country within 48 hours. It has also closed its embassy in Asemra, Eritrea, after accusing Eritrea of “direct and indirect hostility and belligerence against Ethiopia.” Ethiopia has been accusing Eritrea of supporting various insurgent groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Fano militias. At the beginning of this week, the Afar regional president stated that Eritrean forces are fighting alongside the TPLF-led Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and Ugugumo in Afar, controlling territory within the region. Today’s decision shows major geopolitical escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea."