Bullets to ballots: What are the stakes and prospects for the decades-long Bangsamoro peace process?

The decades-long peace process in the southern Philippines is about to face its most pivotal moment on 14 September, as the seven-year-old Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) holds its first-ever parliamentary elections. The upcoming polls, which consummate a 2014 peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), promise a new future after decades of a secessionist rebellion led by the MILF and other Moro groups. However, the threat of political violence remains. 

Tomas Buenaventura,  Asia-Pacific Analyst at ACLED, said:

“ACLED data shows that clan-related violence, or rido-related violent events, in BARMM from January to August already puts 2026 on track to exceed levels seen in previous years. Many such events involve MILF members, and some of these events are election-related.

“As the contracting party to the 2014 peace agreement and head of the transitional authority, the MILF is the biggest institutional player in the elections after the national government itself. Its official party, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), is standing for election, while some MILF members are running with other parties. Meanwhile, two factions of the MILF’s historic rival, the formerly secessionist Moro National Liberation Front, also have their competing parties. However, outside the voting booth, the factional and sometimes rido-related disputes between MILF factions, as well as the activity of Islamic State-inspired and other breakaway rebel groups, continue to threaten violence around election day. 

“Significantly, the largest remaining uncompleted part of the peace process depends on the completion of the election: the decommissioning of the MILF’s remaining arsenal of weapons. So, a successful election process in BARMM would be an achievement of historic and generational proportions for the Philippines, while its failure would be catastrophic.”

For an interview with Tomas Buenaventura, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected].