Can Lebanon's pilot security plan hold?

The Lebanese army's deployment to Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh north of the Litani River marks the start of the pilot phase of a new security plan in southern Lebanon. The pilot follows the trilateral framework agreement reached by Lebanon, Israel, and the United States on 26 June, which links a gradual Israeli withdrawal with steps toward Hezbollah's disarmament. Alongside Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, the first phase also includes the villages of Froun and Srifa, located south of the Litani River. 

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said:

“Beirut sees an Israeli withdrawal as necessary to build domestic support for the deal amid Hezbollah's rejection, while the United States has committed to a framework that ties further Israeli withdrawals to progress on Hezbollah's disarmament. However, significant obstacles remain before the agreement can advance.

“Israel’s withdrawal in this pilot phase is very limited, making it difficult to assess whether it intends to withdraw from other areas under its full control. Froun and Srifa are outside the security zone controlled by its forces, while only the eastern part of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh overlaps with the Yellow Line.

“Although violence has fallen sharply compared with the wartime period, it has not ended. Between 26 June and 20 July, ACLED records nearly 250 Israeli remote violence incidents, including more than 90 air and drone strikes (see graph above) targeting Hezbollah members and infrastructure, buildings and structures, and people moving near the Yellow Line. In addition, Israel has continued to reshape the security zone through widespread destruction. ACLED records more than 155 property destruction incidents across at least 27 villages and towns inside the Yellow Line between 26 June and 20 July (see map below), compared with over 40 incidents between 1 and 25 June.

“The agreement creates new pressure on Hezbollah to resume the fight if the Lebanese state moves toward disarming the group, while Israel is likely to condition any further withdrawal on progress toward Hezbollah's disarmament. At the same time, the agreement remains vulnerable to wider regional dynamics. Continued tensions with Iran reduce US pressure on Israel over its military presence in Lebanon, while a renewed US-Israeli war with Tehran would seriously test the ceasefire.”