Can the RSF seize El Obeid?

The military landscape around El Obeid has become increasingly volatile as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) intensify their campaign to seize the city, utilizing a sustained surge of drone strikes. In response, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are reinforcing their current positions and leaning heavily on local allied groups to protect a vital supply corridor that remains essential to their regional presence. 

Nohad Eltayeb, Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said: 

“The military situation in El Obeid, North Kordofan, is defined by a strategic stalemate that appears unlikely to reach a definitive territorial takeover in the near term. While the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have effectively encircled the city from the north, west, and south —by maintaining key positions in Bara, Umm Sumeima, and Kazgil— the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continue to hold a vital supply corridor connecting the city with eastern territories. While it is very likely that the RSF will attack the city, this logistical lifeline and reinforcements render a complete RSF takeover improbable. 

“June 2026 marked a record intensity in drone warfare around El Obeid, in Sheikan locality, with ACLED recording 27 events involving drone strikes —the highest monthly total since the beginning of the conflict. Although the RSF has intensified its campaign, the conflict has settled into a grinding war of attrition where neither party possesses the decisive advantage required to break the deadlock.

“This escalation is largely driven by the RSF's need to regain momentum following territorial losses in the eastern Blue Nile region, alongside internal instability and defections within its Darfur strongholds. El Obeid remains a top strategic objective for both sides, as it is the critical juncture connecting RSF-controlled western territories with the SAF-held central and White Nile regions. To mitigate the impact of the RSF’s drone campaign against military and civilian infrastructure, the SAF has focused on bolstering its defenses by reinforcing positions with allied groups, such as the Sudan Shield Forces.

“Similar historical events suggest that this offensive will not yield a breakthrough in the immediate short term. Even during previous periods of a complete RSF siege between 2023 and early 2025, the RSF proved unable to capture the city. The current situation indicates that the conflict will remain characterized by shifting localities rather than a change in overall control, with civilians likely to endure a significant and prolonged impact of clashes and drone strikes on the densely populated city of El Obeid.”