Can the SAF’s latest advances reshape Sudan’s war?

On 12 August, the RSF renewed its assault on El Obeid with drone strikes while also targeting Khartoum, and River Nile, as fighting intensified in Blue Nile. The developments come as recent SAF advances in North Kordofan put pressure on RSF positions across multiple fronts, pointing to a new phase of the war in which both sides are increasingly relying on air and drone strikes as ground offensives shift to the peripheries.

ACLED’s Sudan researcher, Ali Mahmoud Ali, and ACLED’s Risk Methodology Lead, Nohad Eltayeb, said:

“The collapse of the RSF encirclement around El Obeid following coordinated SAF offensives marks a significant shift in the war in Sudan, breaking a stalemate in North Kordofan that had lasted for more than 18 months. The operation came at a critical time, just before the rainy season, allowing the SAF to consolidate its gains in the region.

“The SAF’s control of the Exports Road alongside the seizure of huge RSF weapons and drone warehouses in Geberat Al Shaikh — the main RSF military logistics hub in the region —  will enable it to fully consolidate control in North Kordofan and potentially expand towards  RSF strongholds in Darfur and West Kordofan, which the RSF has held for over three years. This marks the beginning of a third phase of the war, with the SAF seeking to build on its gains in Kordofan, and advance in the RSF strongholds, while the RSF attempts to relieve pressure on its western fronts through offensives in Blue Nile and drone strikes on Khartoum, and River Nile.

"As ground offensives shift to the peripheries, both sides are leaning on air and drone strikes to tip the balance, particularly in North Kordofan. Yet the RSF’s aerial campaign is struggling nationwide. After intensifying its drone strikes in June to 44, the RSF’s monthly total fell by 43% in July to just 25 events. At the same time, RSF-allied forces turned increasingly on civilians, targeting them in 70 events in July — its highest monthly total of 2026. 

“Coupled with a steady trend of RSF fighters defecting to the SAF, these trends point to a significant disruption of the RSF's supply lines and strike capacity. It is therefore unlikely that the RSF can withstand offensives on three parallel fronts. The SAF advances, fragmentation of the RSF, and the shift to aerial warfare by both sides will continue to severely impact civilians nationwide.”