Can Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ force Iran to back down?

Professor Clionadh Raleigh, President and CEO of ACLED, said:

“Trump says Iran is collapsing, but economic pain and political collapse are not the same thing. Iran is clearly hurting, but it has also spent decades learning how to survive sanctions and find ways around them.

“The bigger question is whether Trump can get other countries to go along with this. The US can tighten sanctions on Iran, but this becomes a much bigger economic fight if it starts seriously punishing countries, banks and businesses that continue trading with Tehran. China will be particularly important.

“The US is turning to economic pressure because the military campaign has failed to break the stalemate. Iran is doing much the same thing from the other side: using the Strait of Hormuz, threats to shipping, cyber attacks and disruption to make this conflict increasingly expensive for the US and its allies.

“Right now, this is a war of attrition. Both sides are trying to make the cost unbearable for the other without returning to a much bigger military confrontation. Iran is now saying it is time for the war to end, but that does not mean it is prepared to accept Washington’s terms. The question is whether Trump’s new economic offensive creates a route towards a deal — or simply gives both sides another front on which to keep fighting.”