Clan violence in Gaza — Expert Comment

Commenting on the clan violence in Gaza, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, CEO of global conflict tracking monitor ACLED, said:

“Hamas is attempting to regain authority and dominance across Gaza, using public executions, assassinations, and battles with various clan militias to accomplish their power grab. 

Even when Hamas had complete authority over Gaza, before October 7th 2023, they had to deal with multiple locally strong clan militias who have traditionally held power across neighbourhoods and areas of Gaza and the West Bank for many decades. In the vacuum of power that followed Israeli actions in Gaza, these militias flourished. Some worked with Israeli support to hinder Hamas, others facilitated (at great cost) aid into the region, and still others continued to operate as local security or financial organizations in the region. In times of chaos, these militias have always flourished.

Now that IDF troops are partially removed from the region, and Hamas is seeking to re-establish its dominance, it must violently challenge these militias in their local fiefdoms. There are several especially strong challenges coming from militias with identities that can obscure their clan structure and objectives. These groups rarely overlap, and they often do not coordinate internally. However, they have various external loose alliances, including to Fatah, jihadi groups in Lebanon, or, purportedly, international groups like IS or AQ. 

Collectively, these groups represent a significant challenge to Hamas and its authority. Despite signing an agreement that calls for its own destruction, Hamas must destroy the authority each clan militia has built during the war. Seeing an opportunity for their power to surge, clans are likely to sustain a momentous challenge to Hamas going forward. This is very common behaviour for competing armed groups after a peace agreement: even with the expectation of disarming, power challenges and competition are rife in these circumstances when all territorial control, political positions and authority are to play for. Expect unlikely and unstable alliances to form between militias and with Hamas, all of which will be broken when new opportunities to grab power appear. Who has power in Gaza is at stake.”

Note to editors: to interview Prof. Raleigh please contact Bron Mills on +44 7542470185 or email [email protected].

Please see our latest report on the conflict in Gaza, which details how Hamas is adapting to survive.