Expert Comment
Clionadh Raleigh on ceasefire deal after record number of strikes in Iran
ACLED’s Prof. Clionadh Raleigh comments on the ceasefire as strike activity in Iran reaches a new high
Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Founder and CEO, said:
“The ceasefire has been agreed after the most intense day of strikes in the war so far.
ACLED recorded 135 successful US/Israeli strikes inside Iran ahead of the ceasefire deal (6th April) — the highest daily total of the conflict.
It comes after weeks of shifting deadlines, threats and talk of deals, but on the ground the fighting was still reaching new highs right up to the moment this pause was announced, and slightly beyond. Iran’s strikes after the fact suggest that central command and control has been weakened given the leadership and infrastructure losses.
The largest spikes in activity with days with more than 100 strikes, are concentrated in the most recent period of the conflict (28 Mar, 1 April, 6 April) and continued even when it was supposed to be paused in the past. Given that, the ceasefire may also suffer from continued violence.
Today, oil prices have already dipped below $100 a barrel as markets react to the news. The Strait of Hormuz still remains as the main conduit through which Iran can escalate its demands and the costs of this conflict, so the reopening is likely to be gradual while shipping confidence rebuilds.
Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon this morning suggest that, from Israel’s perspective, the US-Iran ceasefire does not extend to the Lebanon front.”
An event refers to a single strike. If an actor carries out a strike on a specific date in a specific location, it is counted as one event, regardless of how many missiles or drones are used. Interceptions are coded in the data as ‘Disrupted weapons use.’
For an interview with Clionadh Raleigh, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected].
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.
