Clionadh Raleigh on Iran Crisis developments

Commenting on the latest developments in the Iran crisis, ACLED CEO Prof. Clionadh Raleigh said: 

“This stage of the war is an air superiority war. This war has also encapsulated the highest number of countries in the shortest period of time compared to most other wars. It’s also a propaganda war and in my view, it seems that Iran is trying to inflict damage by striking at U.S. infrastructure targets abroad while suppressing internal dissent and maintaining control of its borders.  

Israel is attacking Iran’s North and West whereas we’re seeing that the US is mainly attacking Iran’s south. In terms of firepower and supplies — the exact situation is very unclear with both sides making claims — concerning each other’s stockpiles and the number of enemy assets they have destroyed — that seem to be largely speculative. 

What is clear is that there is a big question mark over how long people can put up with the costs of this conflict and how far they can tolerate the costs going up as the conflict drags on. 

Another discussion point is whether the US or Israel might take over, invade or besiege Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil export and logistics hub that is propping up the Iranian economy and is fundamental to Iran's ability to finance this conflict. Of course such actions would have knock-on ramifications on the sanctioning of Russian oil and of China’s ability to purchase the oil it needs.”