Clionadh Raleigh on Iran war as peace talks dominate headlines the attacks continue

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, Founder & CEO of ACLED, says:

“Peace talks may dominate the headlines today, but the data tell a very different story. This morning (24 March, up to 10:00 CET), ACLED is recording that the level of attacks on the 23rd and 24th of March are consistent with earlier days, driven largely by strikes into Iran by  US and Israeli missile and airstrike activity. Strikes from Iran into Israel and Iraq are also high and continuing.  IRGC’s strike on the Peshmerga today targeted Iraqi state military forces in addition to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups with six Iranian ballistic missiles hitting the Soran area.

Across the wider Middle East, the escalation is reportedly even sharper throughout today, the 24th. Some report that recent conflict events across the region are running high, much of it linked to Iranian missile launches and the interception of those strikes across multiple countries.

In other words, while the political narrative is focused on diplomacy, the battlefield dynamics point in the opposite direction. President Trump says peace talks are progressing, while Tehran insists no negotiations are happening at all, dismissing the reports as ‘fake news.’

At the same time, power dynamics inside Iran appear to be shifting. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been steadily consolidating influence, and may be emerging as a key figure shaping Tehran’s wartime response. Yet, this could be signs of cracks within the central regime structure, as different elites have alternative outcomes in mind. A protest wave peaked on 23 March with at least 26 distinct demonstrations  — all pro-regime/succession, suggesting state-organised mobilisation. Internal crackdown escalated yesterday and today — arrests of "spies", "royalists", and people sharing military locations, totalling 130+ detained across these two days. 

Meanwhile, regional incentives are also pushing toward escalation rather than restraint. Recent reporting suggests Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has encouraged the US to continue the campaign against Iran, framing the conflict as a “historic opportunity” to reshape the regional balance of power. Saudi Arabia cannot risk an extremist and unconstrained Iran as an ongoing challenge in the Middle East. 

So, if diplomacy is advancing, it is not yet visible in the attack data.”

For an interview with Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected]. 

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.