Clionadh Raleigh on the race for Africa’s minerals

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED CEO, said: 

"The race for Africa’s critical minerals should not be framed solely as a story of external powers imposing themselves on vulnerable states. African governments are making deliberate, strategic calculations in a highly competitive global market.

As the United States, China and the European Union intensify efforts to secure minerals such as cobalt, lithium and coltan,  all central to defence, technology and energy transitions,  mineral-rich African states have become pivotal. But they are not passive bystanders. For many, extractives remain one of the few globally competitive assets available after decades of limited economic diversification. Leaders understand that demand is high and that buyers are competing. They are seeking to leverage that position accordingly. The political gains, however, are more likely to benefit governing elites than wider populations.

Competition is not only external, it is also intra-African. Despite rhetoric around continental unity, most governments are negotiating individually and prioritising national advantage.

Crucially, commercial mineral agreements are unlikely to deliver peace in conflict-affected regions such as eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Resource deals do not resolve entrenched political and security dynamics.

Major powers differ in how they navigate instability. China has historically prioritised regime stability and predictable extraction, favouring governments that can secure territory. A more transactional US approach focuses on securing access and backing actors who can deliver deals. Both models carry risks of incentivising violence; the difference lies in who deploys force and for what purpose.

At the same time, regulatory safeguards remain limited. Responsible sourcing frameworks, including those advanced by the EU, face uneven enforcement and limited uptake. In the rush to secure strategic supply chains, protections against conflict-linked minerals risk being sidelined."

For an interview with Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected].

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.