Could Colombia’s election fuel more violence?

On Sunday, the 31st of May, Colombians will head to the polls for the first round of the presidential election. Leading candidates include left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, aligned with President Gustavo Petro and broadly supportive of continuing the Petro-era dialogue-based peace talks; Paloma Valencia, a conservative senator who emphasizes tougher security, smaller government and lower taxes; and Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing lawyer advocating for a hardline security approach that discards any negotiation with armed groups. 

Tiziano Breda, Latin America & the Caribbean Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:  

“The outcome of the election will be pivotal for the evolution of the country’s armed conflict. Petro’s ‘Total Peace’ strategy, which aimed at reaching lasting peace through a series of negotiations with various armed groups, has had mixed results. On the one hand, it has temporarily reduced violence during ceasefires agreed with ELN and FARC General Central Staff dissidents. The government has also been able to reach partial agreements with Comuneros del Sur and the FARC’s CNEB in the south. 

“But it is also clear that armed groups have taken advantage of the lower levels of military pressure that accompanied the peace talks. The groups have grown in membership and expanded geographically. This has exposed a growing number of civilians to violence. The absence of military pressure has not stopped armed groups from interfering in the electoral process, whether through threats or outright violence. ACLED records over 150 events of violence targeting political figures since the start of the electoral process in January 2025.

“That two of the three leading candidates are now proposing a harder military approach, aligning with US President Trump’s views, reflects a wider continental shift in how governments are thinking about armed and criminal groups. But if flawed negotiations did not bring lasting peace to the country, sole military action is unlikely to yield results either. ACLED data indicates that an increasingly militarized security approach that has become popular across the continent has contributed to a surge in both number and lethality of clashes between security forces and armed groups in at least nine countries. Far from dismantling criminal operations, this approach has led armed groups to relocate, scale back visible activities, and turn to selective forms of violence. Colombia is not going to be the exception.”