Could escalation around Ali al-Taher put the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon at risk?

On 15 August, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 11 people in Lebanon, including two Hezbollah commanders, making it the deadliest day since the renewed ceasefire took effect on 21 June. Israel said the strikes were in response to a Hezbollah drone attack near Ali al-Taher Ridge that seriously injured three Israeli soldiers on the same day.

Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said:

"The recent strikes mark a sharp escalation following a relative lull since the renewed ceasefire took effect on 21 June. Israeli air and drone strikes in southern Lebanon increased sharply between 11 and 17 August, with 45 strikes compared with only 25 over the preceding 10 days. 

“Nearly 40% of the 45 strikes took place in the area of Ali al-Taher and nearby towns of Deir Siriane, Kafr Roummane, and al-Nabatiyah El Faouqa amid reports of an Israeli plan to capture the Ali al-Taher Ridge. The strategic ridge overlooks al-Nabatieh and towns in northern Israel and reportedly contains key Hezbollah infrastructure, including tunnels. Israeli forces have also reportedly surrounded a few dozen Hezbollah fighters there.

“Hezbollah’s remote attacks against Israeli forces also rose in August, with four attacks after none in July, including an FPV drone attack in the Ali al-Taher Ridge area on 7 August and rocket fire on 12 August. This increase is likely aimed at warning Israel against taking operational control of the ridge and signaling that the group still has military options while the Lebanese government negotiates with Israel.”

“The surge in violence comes at a politically sensitive moment for Israel. Ahead of its national elections, the Israeli government is pushing for further escalation to resume unfinished military operations that it was forced to halt because of the ceasefire and diplomatic process. However, an operation to control the ridge requires US approval, which may be difficult to secure while Washington is trying to advance Hezbollah’s disarmament through negotiations with Lebanon. Escalation in Lebanon would undermine these diplomatic efforts ahead of the next round of US-sponsored talks, expected in Rome early next month, while further increasing tensions between the US and Iran.”