Expert Comment
Could rebel infighting lead to the fall of Minembwe in eastern DRC?
ACLED’s Northern and Western Africa Research Manager, John Ngono, comments on the Congolese military’s advances in South Kivu as divisions deepen within the Twirwaneho militia
The recent air campaigns by the Congolese military (FARDC) and its allies, along with territorial gains around Minembwe town — a key stronghold for the March 23 Movement (M23) ally, Twirwaneho — have sparked divisions within Twirwaneho factions. While some fighters favor surrender to the Congolese government, others advocate for continued resistance, which has led to clashes between the opposing sides. These divisions and contestations increase the risk of violence affecting Banyamulenge civilians in the High Plateau of South Kivu province.
John Ngono, Northern and Western Africa Research Manager at ACLED, said:
“Since the beginning of last week, the FARDC and its allies have bombed and regained control of several key locations in the High Plateau of South Kivu from the Twirwaneho — an armed group that recruits among the ethnic Banyamulenge community. They have overtaken several villages and towns controlled by the rebel group, which has been allied with the M23 since February 2025.
“In addition to the securing of locations through military action, the coalition of armed groups allied with the FARDC also regained control of several key locations following the Washington peace agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali. This treaty compelled the Rwandan government-backed M23 and its allies to retreat from several locations in Uvira, Kalehe, Kabare, and Mwenga territories. Despite this withdrawal, the Twirwaneho and allied Red Tabara, a Burundian rebel group, have continued to fight for these areas and clash against the FARDC and Wazalendo.
“More recently, the Twirwaneho and RED-Tabara have also used drones to fight the Congolese military and its allies in order to retain control of the strategic Banyamulenge-dominated areas of the High Plateau despite reduced support from the M23.
“In the past week, as the FARDC and its allies conducted strikes in Minembwe town, they signaled their intention to regain control of the town and further their control of South Kivu province. If Minembwe were to fall, it would reduce the operational influence of Twirwaneho and its allies in the High Plateau of South Kivu, while exposing the Banyamulenge to more violence, especially because the FARDC and its allies suspect the Banyamulenge of supporting the rebels.”
For an interview with Ngono, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected].
