Expert Comment
Did Ethiopia’s elections worsen existing conflicts?
Ethiopia's election was never going to change the government. Dr Jalale Getachew Birru explains how it became a stress multiplier.
More than 200 Orthodox Christian properties were destroyed on Ethiopia’s election day last week (1 June) in the Arsi zone of Oromia. Even though the election was never expected to change the incumbent government, an incident like this demonstrates why the vote mattered: It acted as a stress multiplier, accelerating the country's existing conflicts.
Dr Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:
“Ahead of the election, the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM) threatened to disrupt voting by closing roads across the Amhara region. While authorities initially dismissed the threat, the government later imposed its own vehicle ban on 1 June, citing election security.
“On election day, the AFNM launched "Operation Ayisha Seid", triggering at least 90 clashes with security forces across the region, according to ACLED data (see map below).
“With at least 90 clashes recorded on 1 June alone, the day saw more fighting than any other since the conflict between the Fano militias and the government began in 2023 (see graph below). By comparison, ACLED recorded 108 clashes involving Fano militias during the whole of May.
“At the same time, in the Oromia region, the OLA/OLF-Shane imposed its own road closure from 29 May to 4 June. ACLED records eight armed clashes between OLA/OLF-Shane and security forces on 1 June, heavily concentrated in the East Wollega zone (see map below).
“OLA/OLF-Shane attacked Orthodox Christian civilians in Aseko woreda in Arsi zone. The attack began a day prior, when members of the group clashed with Oromia regional state riot police and kebele militias in Teleta Chefa kebele of Aseko woreda. They attacked residents and burned the 101-year-old Teleta St. Gebrael Church.
“The violence targeting Orthodox Christians in Arsi zone began in February 2023 and escalated in 2025. Since February 2023, ACLED records 159 instances of civilian targeting in the Arsi zone, with over a third specifically targeting Orthodox Christian residents. Most of this violence was recorded in Shirka and Robe woredas in the Arsi zone.”
For more, or to interview Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, contact [email protected].
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