Does the capture of Bara signal a turning point for the SAF?

Nohad Eltayeb, Senior Research Assistant at ACLED, said: 

“The SAF's seizure of Bara, Um Sayala, and Gebrat al-Sheikh, located north of El Obeid, marks a major strategic shift. By connecting the army's 5th Infantry Division in El Obeid with SAF-aligned forces along the corridor and onward to Khartoum, it establishes a substantially more effective supply route than the one previously running through White Nile State.

“Since the outbreak of the conflict, this road — stretching north of El Obeid and southwest toward Khartoum — had remained largely under RSF control. That allowed the RSF to maintain the siege of El Obeid and constrain SAF operations across North Kordofan, where the front had remained in a strategic deadlock despite more than a year of combat. Together with the barricades, trenches, and checkpoints the SAF has built around the city in recent weeks, control of this corridor significantly improves the army's capacity to relieve pressure on areas around El Obeid while reinforcing its ability to defend the city against any renewed RSF offensive.

“From a military perspective, the SAF now holds two key road links between Khartoum and Kordofan. Although the RSF is likely to attempt a counteroffensive to regain the corridor, its prospects of doing so in the immediate future appear limited, as its forces remain heavily committed to operations across Darfur and Kordofan. The latest advance also places the SAF in a stronger position to continue westward into West Kordofan, increasing pressure on the RSF and potentially forcing it to retreat toward Darfur.”