Expert Comment
Guatemala running on empty — fuelling a new protest crisis?
ACLED’s Tiziano Breda comments on why rising fuel prices have brought protesters onto Guatemala’s streets — and what might happen next.
For the second consecutive week, Guatemala is facing a series of protests against rising fuel prices, this time announced not only by transport workers and taxi drivers, but also the 48 Cantones de Totonicapán indigenous organization.
Tiziano Breda, Latin America Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:
“The unchecked increase in fuel prices sparked by conflict in the Middle East risks triggering the first significant wave of mass unrest that President Bernardo Arévalo has faced since taking office on 14 January 2024.
“Between 31 August and 4 September, ACLED records at least 40 demonstrations related to the increase in fuel prices, taking place in 27 cities spread across 11 of the country’s 22 departments. Most protests have been peaceful so far, and by last Friday the number of demonstrations was declining. Furthermore, Arévalo promised on Monday to use emergency funds to fix the diesel price until the end of 2026.
“But, the involvement of 48 Cantones de Totonicapán may change the picture. The organization was key in ensuring that electoral and judicial authorities respected the popular will in the 2023 elections, which brought Arévalo to power. Since then, this group has participated in less than 10 protests. Its return to the streets power could significantly increase demonstrations in the days ahead.
The immediate question is whether the government’s measures will be enough to contain anger over fuel prices. But the longer conflict in the Middle East keeps global energy prices high, the greater the pressure will be on Guatemala’s wider economy. Higher fuel and transport costs risk feeding into the price of food and other basic goods.
“Combined with growing food scarcity linked to El Niño-related draughts, those pressures could fuel further unrest even if the government succeeds in containing them temporarily. The fuel crisis may be an early warning of a cost-of-living challenge for President Bernardo Arévalo as Guatemala heads towards the 2027 general elections.”
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