Has Ortega closed the door on political change in Nicaragua?

Tiziano Breda, Latin America Senior Analyst, said:

"President Daniel Ortega announced that the country will stop holding elections that would risk being won by opponents, and that the ruling party-controlled National Assembly will follow through with reforms that make sure that no opposition forces — considered as traitors of the motherland — are permitted to carry out political activities. 

"With this decision, Ortega and his wife and co-president Rosario Murillo seal the transition of the country to a full-fledged, family-run dictatorship. They had already pushed through a constitutional reform that extended by one year the presidential term that was due to end in 2026. The rulers are thus doubling down efforts to prevent the emergence of new manifestations of dissent: following the brutal crackdown to the 2018 protest movement, in fact, ACLED has recorded a few anti-government protests only around the 2021 electoral cycle, in which authorities disqualified main opposition parties and arrested the most prominent opposition figures and presidential hopefuls, as well as the November 2022 local elections in the Caribbean coast (see graph below). 

"Ortega and Murillo are evidently afraid at the idea that the slightest political opening could create the conditions for dissent to manifest and threaten their grip on power, possibly suggesting that their already feeble domestic support is further falling. Therefore, instead of staging a rigged election, they have opted to eliminate electoral competition altogether. A disunited opposition movement, most of whose representatives are exiled, coupled with an overall stable economic performance, a cohesive repressive apparatus, and a waning international attention have all contributed to defusing the manifestation of dissent in recent years. However, the further lack of legitimacy that will come from the indefinite permanence in power and the possible greater regional scrutiny it may attract, may hinder Ortega-Murillo’s plans next year."