Héni Nsaibia on fall of Kidal as a turning point in Mali’s conflict

Following the withdrawal of Russian Africa Corps forces from Kidal amid a coordinated rebel offensive, Mali’s security landscape is entering a critical new phase, raising questions about the resilience of the military regime and its reliance on external support.

Héni Nsaibia, West Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“JNIM and the FLA recapturing Kidal is a major strategic setback for the Malian regime and their Russian Africa Corps partners. Coupled with withdrawals from other localities, including Ber and Tessit, this points to a partial collapse in the ranks of the Malian armed forces. The loss is particularly symbolic given that the 2023 recapture of Kidal was a centerpiece in the regime’s narrative about the Malian military’s ‘rise to power’ and its reconquering of lost territory.

“Beyond its symbolic value, the offensive underscores a deeper deterioration in the regime’s position. The ongoing offensive has significantly weakened the Bamako regime, whose future is highly uncertain and intimately linked to the Russian military presence in Mali. Russian forces have significantly enabled and boosted the Malian military’s capabilities in recent years, while also preventing a more rapid collapse of both the armed forces and the regime in Bamako. The effectiveness of the joint offensive, however, showed that Russian and foreign involvement cannot resolve the structural and political challenges at the center of the Sahelian insurgency.

“JNIM’s latest announcement of a full-scale blockade on Bamako will likely force the Malian military to prioritize securing the capital and deprioritize other areas —further complicating efforts to regain control of the situation at a time when the trajectory of the conflict already appears difficult to reverse.”