Is the Houthi-Saudi escalation changing the dynamics of Yemen’s war?

ACLED’s Middle East Analyst, Sherwan Hindreen Ali, said:

“More than a month since they announced their ‘blockade’ on Saudi Arabia and started attacking Saudi shipping on 22 July, the Houthis remain undeterred from carrying out international attacks. 

“On 24 August, the Houthis fired a ballistic missile that hit the Saudi Arabian-flagged Amzan crude oil tanker in the Red Sea, some 63 nautical miles west of the Saudi port of Yanbu —the sixth ship under a Saudi flag to be targeted by the group since their first attack on 22 July. The Houthis claimed the attack as part of their 'blockade' on Saudi ships and ports on the Red Sea, having already targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco oil facility in Najran, Saudi Arabia, on 20 August. 

“These attacks took place in spite of multiple Saudi airstrikes on the Houthis and the most significant military escalation between them and the forces of the International Recognized Government (IRG) since late July. Before that July resumption, this scale of military violence had not been seen for years. 

“ACLED records at least 169 Houthi fatalities due to IRG violence between 6 August —when the current military escalation inside Yemen started—- and 21 August. In spite of these losses, rise in armed hostilities, and the increasingly belligerent public discourse from both sides, internal frontlines have remained stable. Neither the Houthis nor the IRG has managed to advance beyond the internal borders that stabilized in 2022 after the UN-sponsored ceasefire went into effect. 

“How long this tense status quo remains is difficult to predict. While the Houthis frame all their action in terms of ‘resistance’ against Saudi Arabia, the latter has remained largely silent and carried out no serious direct retaliation to the group's attacks so far this month. Meanwhile, battlefield developments saw IRG forces utilizing drone technology in new ways in attacks against Houthi targets, suggesting we will see a very different type of warfare in the coming months compared to the pre-2022 active phase of the Yemen war.”