The Houthis’ biggest escalation in months: Why now?

Between 3 and 7 September, fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed internationally recognized government (IRG) forces has sharply intensified. The most serious escalation since the UN-sponsored ceasefire put an end to major fighting in April 2022 continues to worsen. Houthi forces clashed with IRG forces across frontlines in al-Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwa, al-Jawf, al-Hudayda, and Taizz, with the latter two especially seeing major offensives by both sides to seize territories overlooking the strategic Red Sea coast. ACLED records at least 276 fatalities from violence between the two sides over this five-day period alone. 

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, ACLED’s Yemen Analyst, said:

“This is the most serious escalation of hostilities between the Houthis and the Saudi/IRG camp since hostilities resumed mid-July. 

“Saudi Arabia has become increasingly militarily drawn into the conflict, with Saudi forces launching at least 15 strikes against the Houthis between 3 and 7 September, mostly in the hotly contested Taizz governorate and to support IRG forces. This is the highest number of Saudi strikes so far since their military engagement with the Houthis resumed last July (see ACLED report here).

“The Houthis, meanwhile, have accused Riyadh of escalating its air campaign after seven people were killed in a Saudi strike on a prison in al-Jawf. As a response, the Houthis launched the biggest wave of direct attacks on Saudi Arabian territory since March 2022. On 8 September they launched dozens of drones and ballistic missiles targeting energy infrastructure and other civilian and military targets in Abha, Jizan, Najran, and Khamis Mushayt, injuring 73 people.

“A reduction in hostilities any time soon seems unlikely, as both sides continue to escalate with the goal of inflicting enough damage to the other side to force a compromise. In terms of military capability, both sides are more equal compared to the immediate period prior to the 2022 ceasefire when the Houthis had the upper hand, meaning a quick decisive victory by either side is an unlikely scenario. 

“Fighting will remain focused on the fronts of the Red Sea coast in al-Hudaydah and Taizz, where both the Houthis and the Saudi Arabia/IRG have a vested interest in claiming the whole territory to deprive the other side of effective control of the strait of Bab el-Mandab.”