Expert Comment
How are power outages fueling unrest in Cuba?
ACLED’s Latin America & the Caribbean Senior Analyst Sandra Pellegrini comments on the demonstrations taking place across the island, as hours-long blackouts stoke public anger amid the US fuel blockade.
In January, the US placed a blockade on fuel imports into Cuba. Ever since, blackouts have surged, with outages lasting hours and even days. On Wednesday, the energy minister declared that Cuba’s oil reserves have run dry, prompting hundreds of residents to demonstrate in La Havana to demand access to electricity.
Sandra Pellegrini, Latin America & the Caribbean Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:
“The latest protest comes amid a surge in demonstration activity in March. The delivery of fuel by a Russian tanker on 30 March temporarily alleviated the shortages, but the situation is critical.
“Whilst demonstrations are rare in Cuba’s restricted civic space, fuel shortages, prolonged power outages, and their humanitarian consequences have been the main drivers of mobilization since ACLED began coverage of Cuba in 2018. The latest declarations from the energy minister and an increase in blackouts suggest the situation will deteriorate further and foreshadows more unrest in the coming weeks.
“This could provide further incentives for Havana to negotiate with the US, and concede to some of Washington’s demands, which include regime change and economic reforms.
“There have been some signs that the Cuban government might be open to make concessions. It has announced plans to allow the Cuban diaspora to return to the country and invest in the private sector, and has released thousands of prisoners. But risks of political repression against dissidents remain high. Our data suggest that arrests of demonstrators and dissenting voices have continued throughout March and April.”
