How significant is Russia’s latest attack on Kyiv?

Cristian Vlas, Assistant Research Manager for Eastern Europe said:

“Russia’s weekend attacks on Kyiv, its suburbs, and central Ukraine stand out for both their scale and spread. Extensive damage of civilian infrastructure, government buildings, as well as key cultural institutions, metro stations, and shelters, was reported across every borough of the capital, where at least two civilians were killed and over 80 others were injured. Strikes on all the districts of the eponymous region surrounding the capital city also affected civilian and logistics infrastructure, killing at least two civilians. While ACLED’s data undergoes verification and previous Russian strikes, such as the 14 May one, were deadlier for civilians in Kyiv, we can already say this was among the most destructive assaults on Kyiv and central Ukraine  Russia has launched against the area since the full scale invasion in 2022.

“The reported Oreshnik hypersonic missile strike on Bila Tserkva from the Kyiv region is significant in terms of its posturing value, not the extent of the damage it inflicted. If confirmed, this would be the third recorded use of this missile type in Ukraine (see visual below). 

“The likely target appears to have been an airfield, but the strike reportedly hit garages instead, a reminder of how Russia can use a saber-rattling tool, such as Oreshnik, only to instill fear among civilians rather than inflict actual damage to Ukraine’s military assets. 

“In an already developed tactic of accumulating weapons for denser waves of strikes,Russia is pairing large swarms of one-way attack drones, air-launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles  for aerial assaults designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences which are starving for valuable Patriot system interceptor missiles. 

The Oreshnik strike was about demonstrating reach, but the destructive strikes on Kyiv and its suburbs aimed at intensifying psychological pressure turned into more anger in the Ukrainian government and among Kyivites. Such devastating strikes can instead unify Ukrainian society, even amid worsening economic conditions and tense relations with the government.”
 

For the latest from ACLED on Ukraine, see our Ukraine conflict monitor. 
For an interview with Cristian Vlas, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected]. 

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.