Is Iran Expanding Its Maritime Front into the Northern Persian Gulf?

A recent maritime attack against commercial shipping in the northern part of the Persian Gulf demonstrates that Iran still exhibits an ability to escalate in different arenas. IRGC forces targeted a ship in Iraqi territorial waters, confirming its capability to respond to escalations by striking at will anywhere in the Gulf —including in territories of ostensible allies or neutral actors.

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East Research Manager  at ACLED, said:

“As talks reached a stalemate between the US and Iran on June 1st, Iranian forces launched two missiles that successfully struck the Panamanian-flagged MSC Sariska V container ship in the Persian Gulf, just south of Iraqi port of Umm Qasr. The IRGC took responsibility for the attack, claiming that it was in retaliation for a US strike on the Lianstar cargo ship, which US forces attacked as it attempted to sail to an Iranian port on 29 May. The IRGC also claimed that the ship was US-owned - a claim the owning company denied. 

“ACLED records 64 Iranian attacks against commercial ships in the Persian Gulf and connected waters since the war started and until 2 June. However, the majority of these attacks took place around the Strait of Hormuz, the southern part of the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. The attack on the MSC Sariska V is thus only the fourth attack in the northern end of the Persian Gulf and the third to target a ship shortly after it called at an Iraqi port. 

“Iraq has been among the countries most affected by the economic fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The country’s oil exports dipped rapidly after the war started. In April alone, the country managed to export only 10 million barrels through the Gulf, a sharp decrease from the pre-war 93 million barrels monthly average.”

For more information, or to arrange an interview, contact the ACLED Press Office.