Kabul: First strikes in Afghanistan’s capital city since 2022 – Expert comment

Late last night, explosions hit Afghanistan’s capital city alongside reports of airstrikes in Paktika province. It is unclear what caused the explosion in Kabul or who was responsible, though social media reports indicate that it was a result of an airstrike carried out by Pakistani military forces, allegedly targeting Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud.

Pearl Pandya, Senior Analyst for South Asia with ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), said:

“If confirmed, these airstrikes would be the first such recorded instance in Kabul since the 2022 strike by the United States, which killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.  Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been tense over the escalation in TTP militancy, as Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven to the group. Pakistan has increased its airstrikes within Afghan territory in 2025, allegedly targeting TTP hideouts. The number of such airstrikes in 2025 so far has already exceeded those seen in the entire year of 2024. However, all the airstrikes thus far have been contained to Afghanistan’s border regions alongside Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. 

“These alleged strikes coincide with the Taliban’s first diplomatic trip to India since the group returned to power in 2021. An improvement in relations between India and Afghanistan is likely to be resented by Islamabad, which is fearful of any potential destabilizing impact on its western borders. ”

ACLED records 30 airstrikes by Pakistan targeting Afghanistan since 2023. At least 17 of these airstrikes occurred in 2025. Airstrikes, as recorded by ACLED, can include multiple strikes that happen at the same time and location. For more on our methodology, check the ACLED codebook.

Note for editors: For more information or to interview Pearl Pandya, please contact Gina Dorso at [email protected].

For further information, please see ACLED’s recent report on the increase in TTP activity, The battle for the borderlands: The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan challenges the state’s control. ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.