Ladd Serwat on the Congolose military’s involvement in Goma strikes

Ladd Serwat, ACLED’s Africa Senior Analyst, said:

“Following the drone strike in Goma that killed a French humanitarian worker, the exact drone or missile type and launch point remain unclear. However, several indicators point to likely involvement by the Congolese armed forces (FARDC).

First, FARDC accounts for the vast majority of recorded air- and drone strikes in eastern DRC since 2025. ACLED has documented more than 60 such strikes by the Congolese military in 2026 alone, after surging in the last quarter of 2025. By comparison, fewer than 5% of strike events in 2025-2026 have been attributed to the M23, allied armed groups operating under the AFC, or the Rwandan military.

Second, FARDC air and drone operations have been targeting key M23 positions and leadership figures in North Kivu — including a strike earlier this year near the Rubaya mining area that killed the M23-AFC spokesperson.

Recent activity also supports this pattern: FARDC conducted strikes near Mushaki, west of Goma, on 7 March, while clashes between M23 and Wazalendo fighters were reported in the Virunga area north of the city around the same time.

Taken together — the broader pattern of strike attribution, the recent escalation of FARDC aerial activity in North Kivu, and the proximity of recent fighting — these factors suggest a high likelihood of Congolese military involvement in the strike inside M23-held territory.”