Ladd Serwat on what the Iran crisis means for Africa

Ladd Serwat, ACLED Africa Senior Analyst, notes:

“While Israel and the United States are unlikely to take direct military action against Iranian allies in Africa, Iran and Houthi militants in Yemen pose a credible security threat to both nations' military assets on the continent. The US maintains bases within striking distance of Iranian and allied forces — notably in Djibouti and Somalia — while additional deployments in Nigeria and Kenya extend its exposure further. Israel, too, has military assets in Eritrea, well within range of missile strikes across the Red Sea. Missiles launched against Israel also risk striking Egypt as they transit northward.

“Iran has also been a strategic military partner to several countries in Africa, notably to the Sudanese and Ethiopian militaries, as well as the Sahelian regimes. Given the domestic threats in Iran, the country may face limitations in exporting additional military equipment to its partners in Africa. Other suppliers may try to fill these gaps, such as China, Turkey, and Russia, but we may also see disruptions or delays limiting these regimes’ ability to deal with threats from rebel groups and insurgencies.

“Demonstrations denouncing perceived aggression against Iran are likely to escalate.  In Nigeria, Islamic Movement of Nigeria‑aligned protests have already taken place in at least eight states, including Lagos, Kano, Sokoto, Gombe, and Kaduna, and peaceful processions of hundreds of demonstrators have been recorded in multiple locations. Morocco is the other country most likely to experience this form of unrest, where ongoing demonstrations against Israel and in support of Palestine have been the highest on the continent. Morocco’s political opposition has also cemented this issue, as it is critical of the current regime’s normalization of relations with Israel. Morocco also faces additional threats on its southern doorstep from the Iranian-backed Polisario Front operating in Western Sahara. South Africa is another country that will likely face an uptick in demonstration activity, given its ongoing civil society support for Palestine and denunciation of Israeli aggression.”