Luca Nevola on the armed groups shaping Iran’s regional influence

As tensions involving Iran continue to reverberate across the Middle East, attention has increasingly turned to the network of armed groups that shape Tehran’s regional influence — often referred to collectively as the “Axis of Resistance”. These groups vary in structure and influence, but many receive Iranian funding, training, technical assistance, and weapons — often via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Luca Nevola on Iran’s regional network of armed groups

Hezbollah (Lebanon)
“The most prominent Iran-aligned group is Hezbollah, a powerful armed group and political party widely seen as Tehran’s most capable regional partner. After Israeli and US strikes on Iran, Hezbollah launched missile and drone attacks on northern Israel for the first time since November 2024, followed by a long-range strike toward Tel Aviv. However, greater involvement also exposes the group’s vulnerabilities. While Hezbollah retains substantial capabilities — including thousands of fighters, missiles, and drones — its freedom of movement near the Israeli border has been significantly constrained and its domestic position in Lebanon remains fragile.”

Iraqi Shiite militias
“Iran maintains strong ties with several Shiite militias within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, including groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. Militias operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have already claimed dozens of drone and missile attacks since the first days of the conflict, targeting US forces and military sites in Iraq, although most were intercepted and caused limited damage. While these factions have so far limited their involvement, they retain the capacity to escalate quickly and continue to wield significant military and political influence.”

Houthis (Yemen)
“ Houthi leaders previously warned they would resume attacks on Israel and international shipping if Iran were attacked, but so far they have largely confined themselves to rhetorical support. That restraint suggests an effort to avoid hasty action that could invite Israeli or US retaliation and undermine backchannel talks with Saudi Arabia. However, renewed strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea remain possible as part of a phased escalation strategy.”

Palestinian armed groups
“Groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are Sunni rather than Shiite, but they maintain relationships with Iran through funding, training, and shared strategic goals. While they form part of Iran’s broader regional alignment, their ability to directly enter the conflict is limited by the Israeli military pressure they face in Gaza since October 2023. Instead, Hamas may see the current regional war as an opportunity to consolidate its control in Gaza.”

Iran-aligned militias in Syria
“In Syria, Iran has supported a network of Shiite militias and foreign fighter units — including Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani groups — that were deployed to support the Syrian government during the civil war. These forces remain part of Iran’s regional military infrastructure and could play a role in any wider escalation.”

“Taken together, these groups give Iran a network capable of applying pressure across multiple fronts. However, their responses are likely to remain uneven and carefully calibrated, as each actor weighs the risks of deeper involvement in a wider regional conflict.”