Luca Nevola on Houthi attacks following weeks of inactivity

On 29 March, Houthi forces launched two missile attacks targeting Israel, marking their entry in the Iran conflict. No casualties have been reported so far, and the limited scale and timing of the attacks suggest a deliberate, calibrated signal rather than an immediate escalation — with no follow-up strikes recorded the next day.

Luca Nevola, Yemen and the Gulf Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:

“The announcement was somewhat unexpected. Just one day earlier, Abdul Malik al-Houthi’s speech — marking the 11th anniversary of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen — was overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues, including demands for $57 billion in compensation from Saudi Arabia, while emphasizing a de-escalatory stance with both Saudi Arabia and the US.

“The way the Houthis are framing their intervention is key. They are not presenting this as merely in support for Iran, which may not resonate domestically, but as a war against what they call the ‘Zionist scheme’ — positioning their actions as support for Palestine, which has far broader appeal across Yemen.

“What we are seeing now mirrors October 2023: these initial missile launches are essentially warning shots — not intended to cause significant damage, but to signal entry into the conflict. The pattern so far — two attacks followed by a pause — suggests they are deliberately calibrating escalation and trying to postpone operations in the Red Sea for as long as possible, while setting clear red lines, particularly around the involvement of additional international or regional actors.

“Timing is also critical. Entering the conflict at this stage allows the Houthis to maximize leverage during ongoing negotiations, both by signaling support for Iran and by strengthening the broader ‘Axis of Resistance’ in extracting concessions from the United States.”