Luca Nevola on Iran-US bombing and Houthi retaliatory risks

In light of the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran — and Tehran’s subsequent retaliation against several Gulf states perceived as supportive of Washington and Tel Aviv — the regional conflict has shifted into an active, multi-front confrontation. One of the central questions now is whether the Houthis will deepen their involvement. The movement has consistently positioned itself as part of the Iran-aligned “axis of resistance” and has previously demonstrated both the intent and capability to act beyond Yemen’s borders.

ACLED’s Yemen and the Gulf Senior Analyst, Luca Nevola, comments on the possibility of Houthi involvement in the regional crisis following US-Israel strikes on Iran.

“Perhaps the most striking development in the current escalation cycle is the unprecedented visibility and intensity of direct Iranian strikes against Gulf states. Historically, Tehran relied on partners such as the Houthis to apply pressure on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Houthis, in turn, built a track record of cross-border operations: Prior to the April 2022 UN-mediated truce in Yemen, the Houthis conducted sustained strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“Iran’s current direct targeting of Gulf states, though, lowers the political threshold for additional pressure from aligned non-state actors. Besides, a broad resumption of high-intensity attacks on Saudi territory remains less likely in the near term, given ongoing Saudi-Houthi backchannel discussions. However, calibrated strikes on UAE-linked assets remain a plausible pressure mechanism, particularly as Abu Dhabi is seen by the Houthis as facilitating US and Israeli operations.

“In the current environment, renewed strikes on Israel would represent the most immediate and symbolically coherent response. While strikes extending into the Indian Ocean or Mediterranean would likely face accuracy constraints, they remain within the operational range of certain Houthi systems and serve an important symbolic and deterrent function.

“The next phase could also involve renewed attacks on US military assets in the region, particularly naval vessels operating in or near the Red Sea. US bases across the Gulf — especially in Bahrain — remain potential targets, given their symbolic and operational significance.

“The Houthis are likely to pursue a strategy of controlled escalation, similar to the calibrated approach observed during the Gaza war. This could involve incremental steps designed to reinforce deterrence credibility without provoking overwhelming retaliation.”

For an interview with Luca Nevola, contact the ACLED press office, [email protected].