Luca Nevola on Iran’s strike on Red Sea oil refinery

Dr. Luca Nevola, ACLED Senior Analyst for Yemen and the Gulf, said:  

"Overnight reports suggest Iranian forces struck Gulf energy infrastructure, hitting a Saudi refinery on the Red Sea and damaging Qatari liquefied natural gas facilities and two Kuwaiti oil refineries.

Saudi Arabia had already begun diverting exports away from the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran’s presence there, relying instead on Red Sea routes — whose security is now in question after yesterday’s strikes.

The escalation raises a key question: If Iran is targeting Red Sea energy infrastructure itself, why are the Houthis not doing it on Tehran’s behalf?

Before the war began, the Houthis were messaging that they would intervene if the US or Israel attacked Iran, so many expected them to react immediately. So far, the Houthi leadership has expressed rhetorical solidarity and even said they have their fingers on the trigger, but there has been no practical military commitment. 

Instead, the Houthis are still talking with Saudi Arabia through back-channel communication and negotiating around the UN peace roadmap, and the financial support that the Saudis could provide is a lifeline for a Houthi regime that is cornered economically. When you look at the costs and the benefits of entering this war, the equation is clearly in favor of the costs of the intervention.”

 

For an interview with Luca Nevola, contact the ACLED press office at [email protected].

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.