Luca Nevola on maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and possible Houthi activity in the Red Sea

In the wake of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and its subsequent retaliation against Gulf states seen as supportive of Washington and Tel Aviv, tensions have rapidly expanded into the maritime domain. Iranian officials have issued explicit threats toward commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transit.

ACLED has already recorded at least six maritime or maritime-linked incidents on 1-2 March alone across the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and waters off the UAE and Oman. These include drone and projectile impacts against multiple oil and chemical tankers, one confirmed fatality aboard the MKD Vyom in the Gulf of Oman, injuries following the evacuation of the Skylight tanker near Khasab, and a missile interception over Khalifa bin Salman Port that resulted in debris striking a tanker and causing another fatality. Iranian forces also reportedly fired ballistic missiles toward the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Indian Ocean, though US authorities said the missiles fell short.

ACLED’s Yemen and the Gulf Senior Analyst, Luca Nevola, comments:

“Historically, Iran has relied on calibrated disruption, harassment of vessels, proxy maritime attacks, or temporary seizures, rather than a sustained blockade. But even limited incidents can generate disproportionate economic effects because of the Strait’s structural importance to global energy flows.

“What we are seeing in the past 48 hours is not just a symbolic threat environment. Multiple vessels have been directly impacted or targeted across separate maritime zones, including fatal and injury-producing incidents. That pattern alone is sufficient to trigger a behavioral shift among commercial operators.

“From a security standpoint, the most important variable is whether these incidents remain clustered or become repeatable. ACLED data on maritime and cross-border activity in the Gulf show that escalation cycles often begin with limited, symbolic acts that test international response thresholds.

“A critical variable to watch is whether the Houthis align operationally with Tehran in this phase. We have seen before that maritime theaters can expand rapidly during regional crises. If the Red Sea is reactivated as a pressure front, that would significantly widen the security and commercial impact.”