Luca Nevola on why the Houthis are holding back — and whether it will last

Luca Nevola, Yemen and the Gulf Senior Analyst at ACLED, said: 

“Despite heightened expectations of Houthi escalation following Iranian threats to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the group stopped short of signaling any imminent military intervention. Group leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi’s 26 March speech —widely anticipated as a moment to clarify next steps in the Red Sea— instead pointed to continued restraint.

“During the leader’s speech on the occasion of the 11th anniversary of the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen, he reaffirmed the Houthis’ rhetorical support for Iran paired with a conditional willingness to intervene militarily, without defining clear thresholds or red lines. This ambiguity signals deliberate restraint: for now, the costs of intervention outweigh the benefits.

“Crucially, the speech focused primarily on relations with Saudi Arabia, framing the Houthi movement as being in a phase of de-escalation towards Riyadh, while pressing the Saudis on compensation demands. Overall, the address underscored that Houthi priorities remain primarily domestic, indicating a significant degree of autonomy from Tehran in shaping their strategic direction.”